Long-term electric peak demand and capacity resource forecast for Texas, 1992.
Abstract
More than adequate electrical generating capacity exists to meet demand in the short term in
Texas. This offers high reliability, but also imposes the cost of plant investments. 'Despite
these near-term capacity surpluses, a number of resouroe planning issues deserve prompt
attention:
l. Alleviate transmission bottlenecks.
2. Moderate near-term rate increases to prevent widespread self'
generation or byPass.
3. Scrutinizepromotionalactivities.
4. Examine end-use energy efficiency programs.
5. Research solar and wind technologies.
6. Consider dispersed resources to defer investments in transmission and
distribution system uPgrades.
The Long-Term Electric Peak Demand and Capacity Resource Forecast for Texas 1992
is designed to provide information and recommendations to policy makers and others
interested in the present and future status of the Texas electric power industry. Volume I of
this two-volume report provides staFrecommended electricity demand projections for 13 of
the state's largest generating utilities and a capacity resource plan for Texas. The economic
outlook for Texas, fuel markets, cogeneration activity, demand-side management program
impacts, environmental issues, and strategic rate design are highlighted. Substantial emphasis
is placed on alternative power sources (particularly purchases from qualifying facilities) and
energy efficiency to reduce the rate of growth of peak demand. The current report recognizes
the end of the late 1980s economic recession in Texas, yet emphasizes efiiciency
improvements as the key to reliable and low-cost electrical services, environmental integrity,
and increased economic growth.
Volume II summarizes the electricity demand forecasts, energy efficiency plans, and capacity
resource plans developed by generating electric utilities and filed at the Commission in
December 1991 (or later amended). The technical appendices provide a description of the
staffs econometric electricity demand forecasting and resource planning system used to
develop the load forecast contained in Volume I, and are available upon request.