Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS
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Date
2004-07Author
Kribs, Christopher
Chowell, Gerardo
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
Fenimore, Paul W.
Arriola, Leon
Hyman, James M.
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Show full item recordAbstract
Control of the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis
coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty
and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number
R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak
control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness
have the largest fractional effect on R0. We estimated
the distribution of the reproductive number R0 under perfect
isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile
range 0.19–1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the
median of R0 is <1, we found that 25% of our R0 distribution
lies at R0 > 1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the
need to simultaneously apply more than one method of
control.