The effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on Africa's truck drivers
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Date
2005-10Author
Kribs, Christopher
Lee, Melanie
Roman, Christine
Wiley, Shari
Hernandez-Suarez, Carlos M.
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Show full item recordAbstract
The AIDS epidemic is having a growing impact on the transport
sector of the economy of sub-Saharan Africa, where long-distance truck drivers
are at an increased risk of infection due to their frequent contacts with com-
mercial sex workers. The spread of AIDS in the transport industry is especially
signi¯cant to the economy, as truck drivers are largely responsible for trans-
porting crops and supplies needed for daily subsistence. In this paper we
analyze these e®ects via two models, one employing a switch and the other
a Verhulst saturation function, to describe the rate at which new drivers are
recruited in terms of the supply and demand for them in the general popula-
tion. Results provide an estimate of the epidemic's economic impact on the
transportation sector through the loss of truck drivers (an estimated 10% per
year, with endemic levels near 90%).